Corn Futures Outlook: USDA Projections and CME Basics

The corn futures outlook for the 2026/27 season points to large US supplies and a lower farm price than USDA expected a month earlier. The October 9, 2026 WASDE report raised the US crop to 16.0 billion bushels on a 181.2 bushel yield, lifted ending stocks to 1.85 billion bushels and cut the season-average farm price projection by 10 cents to $4.70 per bushel.

This page explains what those USDA projections mean for a grower who sells corn or uses futures to manage price risk. It covers how a CBOT corn contract works, the reports that move the market, recent prices received by farmers, and a hedge calculator you can fill in with your own numbers. All forecasts here are USDA or university projections, not ours. This is general information, not investment or trading advice: futures and options carry a risk of loss, so talk to a licensed broker, your lender or a farm business adviser before you trade.

Corn futures outlook at a glance

The table sums up the October 2026 USDA numbers for US corn. Each line has its own section below.

Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. The 2026/27 marketing year for corn runs from 1 September 2026 to 31 August 2027.

What corn futures are and why farmers watch them

A corn futures contract is a standard agreement to buy or sell a set amount of corn at a set price for delivery in a future month. The main US benchmark trades on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), part of CME Group, under the symbol ZC. One contract covers 5,000 bushels of No. 2 yellow corn, and prices are quoted in cents per bushel. The listed delivery months are March, May, July, September and December. December is the new-crop month that most US growers watch through the summer.

Futures matter to farmers who never trade them, for four reasons:

• Price discovery. Elevators, ethanol plants and feed mills set their cash bids as futures plus or minus a local basis.
• Risk management. A grower can sell futures, or buy put options, to lock in part of a price before harvest.
• Crop insurance. USDA’s Risk Management Agency takes the projected and harvest prices for revenue policies from exchange contracts, as set out in its Commodity Exchange Price Provisions.
• Planning. Budgets for next year’s crop start from the futures price for that harvest month.

The CFTC, the US futures regulator, explains in its basics of futures trading that many market users are hedgers who want to reduce the risk of losses from price changes, not speculators.

Key terms in plain English

• Basis: the local cash price minus the nearby futures price. The CFTC glossary notes it is usually measured against the contract next to expire.
• Margin: money left with a broker as a performance bond. It is not a part payment. If prices move against you, the broker issues a margin call.
• Open interest: the number of contracts still open in a month or market.
• Short hedge: selling futures to protect the value of grain you own or will grow.

What USDA projects for corn prices

USDA does not forecast futures prices. It projects the season-average price received by producers, a weighted average of cash sales over the whole marketing year. In October 2026 that projection for 2026/27 was $4.70 per bushel, down from $4.80 in September but above the $4.16 estimate for 2025/26 and $4.24 for 2024/25.

Chart

USDA season-average corn farm price

$ per bushel, US marketing years; 2026/27 are projections

The reason for the cut is simple. USDA raised supply more than use. Beginning stocks went up 173 million bushels after the September 30 Grain Stocks report, and the yield rose 2.7 bushels. Use rose too, with more feed, ethanol and exports, but not by as much. So projected ending stocks climbed to about 1.85 billion bushels.

The USDA Economic Research Service market outlook adds that the 2026/27 US feed grain supply, at 476.4 million metric tons, is the second largest on record and only 3 percent below the 2025/26 record.

How one month of USDA changes moved the balance sheet

The chart compares the September and October projections for three supply and use lines. The gap in ending stocks is the number traders noticed first.

Chart

US corn balance sheet: Sep vs Oct 2026 WASDE

million bushels, 2026/27 projections

Recent corn prices farmers received

Futures quotes and farm prices are not the same thing. The farm price is what growers were actually paid, after basis. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service publishes it each month in Agricultural Prices.

The August 2026 US corn price received was $4.45 per bushel. That was 19 cents higher than in July and 49 cents above August 2025. Over the first eight months of 2026 the monthly price stayed between $4.12 and $4.48, a little below the same months of 2025 until August.

Prices in these reports are monthly averages paid to farmers across the US. Your local price depends on your basis, the grade of your grain and when you sell.

Chart

US corn price received by farmers, by month

$ per bushel, monthly US average, January to August

What drives the corn futures outlook

The same handful of factors shows up in almost every USDA and university outlook. Here is how each one stood in October 2026.

1. US yield and crop size

Weather in July and August sets most of the US yield. USDA’s July projection uses a weather-adjusted trend. Later months use survey and field data. In 2026 the yield went from 178.5 bushels in September to 181.2 in October. Each bushel of national yield on 88.5 million harvested acres adds about 88 million bushels of supply.

2. Ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio

Ending stocks compared with total use is the main gauge of how tight the market is. With 1,849 million bushels of stocks against 16,305 million bushels of use, the October 2026 ratio is about 11.3 percent, up from about 9.7 percent in the September report.

3. Ethanol and feed demand

The ERS feed grains overview says ethanol accounts for a large share of US corn use, and feed use usually makes up about 40 percent of domestic use. USDA projects 5,650 million bushels of corn for ethanol (about 35 percent of total use) and 6,000 million for feed and residual in 2026/27.

4. Exports and South American competition

The United States is the world’s largest corn exporter. USDA projects US exports of 3.3 billion bushels for 2026/27. The main rivals are Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Their harvests come at different times of year, so a big South American crop can weigh on US prices in the northern spring and summer.

5. Crops outside the US

In October 2026 USDA cut foreign corn output, mainly in the EU and Mexico. It forecast French production 38 percent below the prior year. Even so, world corn ending stocks rose to 280.4 million metric tons, mostly because of larger US stocks.

6. Costs, the dollar and money flows

Input costs do not set futures prices, but they decide whether a price is profitable. A stronger US dollar can make US corn less competitive abroad. Fund positions also move prices in the short run. The CFTC publishes Commitments of Traders reports with Tuesday positions, usually released on Friday.

▶ A short look at grain market price trends in the UK and Europe, a reminder that crops abroad affect US prices. · 1:46

Where US corn exports compete

The chart shows USDA’s October 2026 export projections for the main corn exporters. The US leads by a wide margin, with Brazil and Argentina next.

Timing matters as much as volume. Brazil and Argentina harvest in the southern hemisphere, so their grain reaches world buyers at a different time of year from the US crop. When their crops are large, buyers have more choice, and US export sales can slow. In October 2026 USDA kept its Brazil and Argentina export projections unchanged at 43 and 38 million metric tons. Watch the USDA export projections for these countries each month, because a change abroad can move CBOT prices as much as news from the Corn Belt.

Chart

Projected corn exports by country, 2026/27

million metric tons, October 2026 projections, major exporters

Corn prices against farm break-even costs

A price outlook only matters next to your own costs. The University of Illinois farmdoc team publishes crop budgets each year. Their Illinois crop budgets for 2027 (September 2026) use a $5.00 corn price based on 2027 harvest futures adjusted for typical basis.

The same article puts total costs, including cash rent, at a break-even price of around $5 per bushel for corn in northern and central Illinois, and nearly $5.40 in southern Illinois. It also notes that a 50-cent move in corn prices shifts returns per acre by more than $100 on high-yield Illinois land. Your costs will differ, so use your own figures, not these.

How to use corn futures in a marketing plan

The steps below are a common way extension economists describe a simple hedge. They are not a recommendation to trade. Futures and options can lose money, and margin calls can strain cash flow.

1. Know your cost per bushel. Add up all costs, including land, and divide by expected bushels.
2. Estimate your harvest basis. Look at several years of local cash bids against December futures.
3. Decide how much to price. Many plans price only part of expected output before harvest, because yield is not yet known.
4. Choose a tool. Options include a forward cash contract with your elevator, a hedge-to-arrive contract, selling futures, or buying put options.
5. Plan for margin. If you sell futures and prices rise, you must add margin money before you sell the grain. Talk to your lender first.
6. Close the position. At harvest, sell the grain for cash and buy back the futures. The gain or loss on futures offsets part of the change in the cash price.

Worked example in words

Say a grower sells December futures at $4.90 in spring. At harvest the cash price is $4.30 and futures have fallen to $4.70. The grower buys back the futures for a 20-cent gain. Net price is the $4.30 cash price plus 20 cents, less commission. If basis is weaker than expected, the net price is lower. The calculator below runs the same sum with your own numbers.

Try the numbers for your own farm below.

Strategies for farmers in a fluctuating market

Each tool suits a different situation. The table compares them in plain terms.

Crop insurance is part of the same picture. A revenue policy uses exchange prices, so knowing the futures market helps you read your coverage. Ask your insurance agent how the projected price is set for your crop.

The role of technology in agricultural market analysis

Better crop data helps with marketing decisions. If you know earlier how your own fields are doing, you can judge how many bushels to price before harvest. Satellite crop health maps, such as those from Farmonaut, show where plant vigor is falling within a field. They do not tell you the cause, and they do not predict futures prices. Developers who want field data in their own tools can use the satellite and weather API developer docs or the API sign-up page.

Public data still does most of the work. USDA’s NASS crop progress reports, WASDE and ERS outlooks are free to read and set the tone for the market each month.

▶ How AI and satellite data are used on corn fields from Kansas to Alabama. · 11:16

The impact of climate change on corn futures

Weather risk is the main short-run source of price swings. Heat and drought during pollination in July can cut yields fast. Wet springs can delay planting. Over the longer term, shifts in growing conditions may change where corn is grown. ERS notes that short-season hybrids have already helped corn expand into northern areas.

For a single farm, the useful steps are practical: spread sales over time, keep good field records, manage soil water and know your insurance terms. Our guide to agriculture and water management covers ways to make fields more drought ready.

Reports to watch each month

• WASDE (USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board): monthly supply, use and price projections, usually around the 10th to 12th.
• Crop Production (NASS): yield and production estimates, released with WASDE in the growing season.
• Grain Stocks (NASS): quarterly; the September report resets beginning stocks for the new year.
• Agricultural Prices (NASS): monthly prices received by farmers.
• Feed Outlook (ERS): monthly analysis of corn and other feed grains.
• Commitments of Traders (CFTC): weekly positions held by trader groups.

Implications for farm financial planning

A lower USDA price projection does not mean your price will be lower. It means the market expects ample supply. For planning, three habits help:

• Budget with a price near current harvest futures less your usual basis, as the farmdoc budgets do.
• Run a low-price case. If corn fell 50 cents, could you still cover cash costs?
• Match pricing to storage, cash flow and loan terms. Agricultural policy also matters; see our page on agricultural policy and its advantages.

How we checked the numbers

Every figure on this page comes from a public source dated in the text: USDA WASDE reports of September and October 2026, NASS Agricultural Prices of September 2026, ERS feed grain pages, CFTC education pages, RMA price provisions and the University of Illinois farmdoc crop budgets. We did not make our own price forecast. Contract terms are from CME Group’s published corn contract specifications.

FAQ

What is the USDA corn price forecast/27?

In the October 9, 2026 WASDE, USDA projected a season-average price received by US farmers of $4.70 per bushel for the 2026/27 marketing year, down 10 cents from September. It is a projection of average cash prices, not a futures price target.

How big is one CBOT corn futures contract?

One contract is 5,000 bushels of corn. A one-cent move changes the value of a contract by $50, and a 10-cent move by $500.

Why did corn prices fall after the October WASDE?

USDA raised supply more than use. Beginning stocks and the yield both went up, so projected ending stocks rose by 282 million bushels to about 1.85 billion. More grain left over usually means a lower price.

What is basis and why does it matter?

Basis is your local cash price minus the futures price. A hedge locks in the futures part, but your final price still depends on basis at the time you sell.

Should I hedge my corn with futures?

That depends on your costs, storage, cash flow and risk tolerance. Futures and options can lose money and need margin. Get advice from a licensed broker, your lender or a farm business adviser before you trade.

Where can I read more?

Related pages on our site: space farming technology, methods of farming, 21st century agriculture, common crop pests in Illinois and the Farmonaut app.