China Grain Import Trends: 5 Years of USDA Data

China grain import trends show a sharp fall followed by a partial recovery. Wheat and coarse grain imports dropped from 61.7 million tons in 2023/24 to 22.4 million in 2024/25, then recovered to 31.6 million in 2025/26, according to USDA’s Grain: World Markets and Trade report of October 2026. USDA forecasts 31.2 million for 2026/27.

The total hides a change in what China buys. Corn and wheat fell the most, while barley and sorghum held up. This page breaks the five years down by grain, explains the policy behind the swings, and gives a calculator to test what a change in Chinese buying means against world stocks.

China grain import trends at a glance

All figures in this section are USDA trade-year numbers. Wheat runs July to June. Corn, barley and sorghum run October to September. USDA counts wheat flour and some other wheat products on a grain-equivalent basis, so its wheat figure is not the same as a customs count of wheat grain alone.

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China’s wheat and coarse grain imports

Million metric tons, USDA trade years; 2026/27 is a forecast

Figures are million metric tons, from the same USDA report. Three points stand out:

• Corn fell furthest. It went from 23.3 million tons to 1.8 million in one year, a drop of about 92%. The 2026/27 forecast of 5.0 million is still far below the earlier level.
• Barley became the largest of the four. At 14.0 million tons in 2025/26, it was larger than sorghum (7.2 million), wheat (5.5 million) and corn (4.0 million).
• Wheat is recovering slowly. The 6.0 million forecast is less than half of the 13.6 million bought in 2023/24.

Is China still the largest wheat importer?

No. On USDA’s October 2026 numbers, China was not the top wheat buyer in 2025/26. Egypt led at 15.2 million tons, followed by Indonesia at 13.0 million. China’s 5.5 million tons was about 2.5% of the 221.2 million tons of world wheat imports.

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Wheat imports, selected buyers

Million metric tons, trade year 2025/26; a selection, not a full ranking

China was the largest single importer in USDA’s table in 2023/24, when it bought 13.6 million tons. That older ranking still appears in many articles, so check the marketing year on any claim you read.

China’s weight in wheat now comes from its size as a producer and holder of stocks. USDA puts its 2025/26 crop at 140.1 million tons and its use at 150.0 million. A small change in a market of that size can still matter to exporters, because it lands on a world trade total of about 209 million tons forecast for 2026/27.

Why China’s wheat imports swing

China’s wheat buying moves with its harvest, its reserves and its import rules. The sources point to four main drivers.

Large domestic harvests

FAO’s GIEWS country brief of January 2026 estimated China’s 2025 cereal crop at a record 657.5 million tonnes, with wheat at 139.9 million and maize at a record 299 million. FAO linked its below-average import forecast for 2025/26 mostly to that record crop.

Large state purchases and reserves

China’s government said grain purchases stayed above 400 million tonnes in 2023. The head of its reserves agency said in January 2024 that the stock-to-use ratio was well above the 17 to 18 percent often quoted as a security threshold. That is an official statement from China, not an outside audit.

A wheat quota with a steep tariff above it

USDA’s Economic Research Service explained in 2021 that China allows up to 9.636 million tons of wheat at a 1% tariff. Above that amount the tariff is 65%, which ERS says usually makes imports unprofitable for millers. Companies apply for a share of the quota in the year before they import. So buyers cannot respond to every price change as freely as buyers in an open market.

The quota system has also been challenged. A World Trade Organization panel reported in 2019 that China’s administration of its quotas for wheat, rice and corn did not meet its obligations to be transparent, predictable and fair.

Feed choices

Wheat can go to feed as well as flour. ERS described a surge in feed use of wheat around 2021. USDA’s October 2026 WASDE again raised China’s feed and residual use of wheat, to 32.0 million tons for 2026/27. When domestic wheat, corn and imported barley compete for the same feed mills, relative prices can shift demand for imported wheat.

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China’s grain stockpiling strategy

China holds a very large part of the world’s grain stocks. USDA’s tables show this clearly, although these numbers are estimates. USDA also publishes a “World Less China” line, so you can see world stocks without China.

Ending stocks for 2025/26 in million metric tons, from USDA’s WASDE of 9 October 2026. World totals are USDA’s world lines. Shares are our calculation.

USDA expects China’s wheat stocks to slip to 119.2 million tons and its corn stocks to 165.1 million in 2026/27. Both have been falling for several years: corn stocks were 211.2 million in 2023/24. So stockpiling is not a one-way build. China is drawing down part of what it holds, and buying less from abroad while it does.

Why barley and sorghum held up

USDA gives a direct reason. It says China’s barley buying grew by 4.0 million tons in 2025/26 because private importers wanted cost-effective feed. It also points to a restrictive corn quota, steps to reduce corn imports, and trade tensions that affected other feed ingredients.

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China’s imports by grain

Million metric tons, USDA trade years; 2026/27 is a forecast

China took more than 40% of world barley imports in 2025/26, by USDA’s count. USDA calls it the driving force of the global barley trade for 2026/27 too, with imports forecast at 13.0 million tons. It expects a record Australian crop and good Canadian supplies to help meet that demand.

Sorghum tells a similar story on a smaller scale. China’s purchases were 7.2 million tons in 2025/26 and are forecast at 6.3 million in 2026/27.

Soybeans are outside the grain tables but matter for the same feed sector. USDA’s oilseeds report shows China importing 113.0 million tons of soybeans in 2025/26, against a domestic crop of 20.9 million. ERS calls soybeans China’s top agricultural import, with the United States and Brazil as the main exporters. Grain imports are small beside that figure.

How tight is the global wheat market?

USDA estimates 2025/26 world wheat ending stocks at 281.6 million tons, after a very large 844.1 million ton crop, so the market is not short on that measure.

The picture for 2026/27 is tighter on some measures. USDA forecasts production of 822.4 million tons, use of 827.9 million and ending stocks of 276.0 million. World trade is 209.0 million tons. Russia’s exports are put at 40.0 million, the lowest in five years, with Black Sea logistics a stated cause. US output of 1,534 million bushels is the smallest since 1970.

FAO’s Cereal Supply and Demand Brief tells a similar story with its own basis. It forecasts 2026 world wheat output at 813.9 million tonnes, 3.3% below the previous year, and world cereal trade in 2026/27 at 505.8 million tonnes, 3.5% lower. Its figures differ from USDA’s because the two bodies use different methods, so compare each source only with itself.

Where do redirected cargoes go? When one buyer steps back, exporters look elsewhere. USDA’s report shows this kind of switching at work among other buyers in 2026/27, as high prices and limited Russian supply push some importers toward other origins. For the Southeast Asian market, Vietnam’s wheat imports rose to 7.3 million tons in 2025/26 from 5.7 million a year earlier, while Thailand’s fell to 3.5 million from 4.7 million. Those moves have several causes, so do not read them as a direct result of Chinese buying.

China grain import trends by supplier

USDA’s monthly grain report gives China’s totals by grain, not a full table of its suppliers. Check China’s customs figures for shares by origin. USDA’s Global Agricultural Trade System covers US trade only, so it shows only the US share. What the sources do state:

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China’s imports: peak year vs latest forecast

Million metric tons, USDA trade years

• Barley: USDA names Australia and Canada as the suppliers likely to meet China’s 2026/27 demand.
• Soybeans: ERS names the United States and Brazil as the main exporters to China.
• Wheat: ERS said in 2021 that hundreds of flour mills apply for a quota share each year, which shows demand for imported wheat even when volumes are low.

What decides which exporter wins an order

• Landed price. Export price, freight and exchange rates together set the cost at a Chinese port.
• Quality. Flour millers and feed mills want different grain, so protein and grade matter.
• Market access. Plant health approvals and tariff terms decide which origins can ship at all.
• Quota status. For wheat, corn and rice, a buyer needs quota to pay the low tariff.

What China’s import trend means for growers

Most farmers do not sell to China directly, but the effect reaches them through export competition.

• US corn and sorghum growers: USDA’s world tables show China’s corn imports of 5.0 million tons for 2026/27 against 23.3 million in 2023/24. Sorghum depends more on China: it is the largest importer in USDA’s table.
• Canadian and Australian barley growers: China is the main buyer in world trade, so a policy change on feed imports would matter more here than in wheat.
• Wheat growers everywhere: China’s 2026/27 forecast of 6.0 million tons is about 2.9% of world trade. Russia’s export path and northern harvests may matter as much in a given season.

This is general market information, not financial or marketing advice. Talk to your grain merchant or adviser before you change a sales or hedging plan.

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Wheat shipment exposure calculator

Enter a change in Chinese wheat buying and compare it with world trade and stocks. The defaults use USDA’s October 2026 forecasts for 2026/27, and you can replace them when a new report appears. The last two fields let you test your own farm against a price move that you choose.

Try the numbers for your own farm below.

How to track the next shift yourself

These numbers change every month. Use this order to get a current reading:

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Monthly check in 4 steps

1. 1Read WASDECheck China and world lines.
2. 2Read the FAS circularSee imports by grain and country.
3. 3Check FAO GIEWSAdd crop and price notes.
4. 4Watch the cropCompare satellite season signals.

1. Read WASDE. USDA publishes it monthly. Check world and China lines for wheat, corn and rice.
2. Read the FAS grain circular. Grain: World Markets and Trade lists imports by country for wheat, corn, barley, sorghum, oats and rye, with notes on why forecasts changed.
3. Check FAO. The GIEWS China brief adds crop conditions, import needs and domestic prices.
4. Read older outlooks for context. USDA’s Wheat Outlook of 2025 shows how forecasts changed over time.
5. Watch the crop itself. Satellite vegetation indices can show a strong or weak season in a region before trade data does, though they show plant condition, not the cause or the final tonnage. Farmonaut offers this kind of field-level satellite monitoring.
6. Watch futures with care. Prices react to many things at once, so do not read one move as news about China.

Related pages on our site: satellite and weather API documentation, satellite data API, web app sign-in, corn yield by state, food security in Lesotho.

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What to remember

China’s grain imports fell hard in 2024/25 and have only partly recovered. Corn and wheat remain well under their 2023/24 levels, while barley stays strong as cheap feed. Large harvests, big reserves, quota rules and feed prices drive those swings. Check the marketing year and the basis of every figure, because old claims about China’s wheat rank and world stocks no longer match USDA’s data.

FAQ

How much grain does China import?

USDA puts wheat and coarse grain imports at 31.6 million tons in 2025/26 and forecasts 31.2 million for 2026/27. Rice adds about 4 million tons. Soybeans, counted separately, are far larger at 113.0 million tons.

Why did China’s corn imports fall so much?

Imports fell from 23.3 million tons in 2023/24 to 1.8 million in 2024/25. USDA, explaining China’s later barley buying, points to a restrictive corn tariff rate quota and steps to reduce corn imports. FAO links China’s low 2025/26 import needs mostly to a record 2025 crop, including 299 million tonnes of maize, but that harvest came after the 2024/25 fall.

Is China stockpiling grain?

China holds very large stocks: about 43% of world wheat stocks and 58% of corn stocks in 2025/26, on USDA’s estimates. Those estimates show its wheat and corn stocks falling, not rising, in recent years.

Which country imports the most wheat?

On USDA’s October 2026 data, Egypt was the largest single importer in 2025/26 at 15.2 million tons, and Indonesia was second at 13.0 million. China was at 5.5 million.

Why do USDA and FAO import numbers differ?

The dates and methods differ. FAO’s January 2026 brief put China’s 2025/26 wheat imports at 8 million tonnes, while USDA’s October 2026 report shows 5.5 million tons. Compare each source with itself over time.