Time From Discovery to Production: Mine Stages in Years

The average time from discovery to production for a new mine is about 15.7 years, based on 127 gold, copper, nickel, silver and zinc mines that started up worldwide between 2002 and 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Gold mines were the quickest at 15.2 years and nickel mines the slowest at 17.5 years. Mines that started in 2020-2023 took longer still, at 17.9 years on average.

Those averages hide a wide spread. A high-grade deposit in a supportive jurisdiction can reach first ore in about a decade, while large copper projects in the United States have sat in development for 30 years or more. This guide breaks the lead time into its stages, shows how long each one usually takes, compares metals and countries, and gives a calculator so you can build a timeline for your own project.

Average time from discovery to production by metal

S&P Global’s often-quoted 2023 study looked at 127 mines with consistent data that came online from 2002 onward. Gold made up more than half of the sample, so the gold figure is the most reliable one. Here is what the study found for each metal, measured from first discovery to first production:

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Average years from discovery to first production

Mines that came online 2002-2023, by metal

Two points stand out. First, roughly three quarters of the total is spent before anyone decides to build: finding the deposit, drilling it out and completing the technical and economic studies. Second, construction itself is short by comparison, usually two to four years. If you want to shorten a mine timeline, the early stages are where most of the time is.

The International Energy Agency reached a similar answer with a different sample: the major mines that came online between 2010 and 2019 took on average more than 16 years from discovery to first production, with more than 12 years of exploration and feasibility work and 4-5 years of construction.

Why gold mines usually move faster than copper mines

Gold deposits are often smaller, higher in value per tonne and simpler to process. A gold mine can produce a dore bar (a crude gold-silver alloy) on site and fly it out, while a copper mine has to move hundreds of thousands of tonnes of concentrate to a smelter, which needs roads, rail, power and port access. A World Bank study of gold and copper discoveries since 1950 found that about one third of copper discoveries took 30 years or more to reach production, compared with only 4.5% of gold discoveries. The authors link the gap to the greater complexity and infrastructure needs of copper projects.

The same study found that higher copper prices at the time of discovery shortened lead times by two to three years in low-income countries since 2000, and that sounder public finances and better governance also sped up development.

Mining project development stages and how long each takes

Most mines pass through the same sequence of stages. The ranges below are typical for a greenfield project (a new deposit with no previous mine on site). They overlap in practice: permitting work often starts while studies are still running.

Infographic

From discovery to steady production in 6 steps

1. 1DiscoverScreen ground and drill targets until a hole cuts ore-grade rock.
2. 2DefineClose-spaced drilling and assays build a mineral resource.
3. 3StudyPreliminary, prefeasibility and feasibility studies test the economics.
4. 4PermitEnvironmental, water and land approvals, often in parallel with studies.
5. 5BuildFinance, decide, then construct and commission the mine and plant.
6. 6Ramp upRaise throughput from first ore to the design rate.

1. Grassroots exploration and discovery: 2 to 5 years

Geologists screen ground with geological maps, satellite and airborne surveys, soil and stream sampling, and then drill the best targets. A discovery is usually the first drill hole that cuts mineralisation (rock containing the metal) at an interesting grade. Grade means the amount of metal per tonne of rock; for gold it is quoted in grams per tonne (g/t). Most targets never become discoveries, which is why this stage is the riskiest per dollar spent. Our guide to the main types of exploration drilling explains the rigs used at this point.

2. Resource definition: 2 to 5 years

After a discovery, the company drills on a closer grid to measure the size, shape and grade of the deposit. Drill core is logged and assayed (chemically tested for metal content), and a qualified person estimates a mineral resource: the tonnes and grade that have reasonable prospects of being mined. The core samples guide covers how core is handled and what it tells geologists. The style of deposit matters here; see our overview of types of ore deposits.

3. Economic studies: 2 to 4 years

Studies move from a preliminary economic assessment (an early, low-confidence look at whether a mine could pay) to a prefeasibility study and then a feasibility study. Each one adds metallurgical testing, mine design, cost estimates and a reserve estimate. A reserve is the part of the resource that can be mined at a profit under the study’s assumptions, including the cut-off grade (the lowest grade worth sending to the mill). In S&P Global’s data, discovery, exploration and all these studies together took 11.9 years on average.

4. Permitting and approvals: 2 to 10 years

Permits cover the environment, water, land use, waste storage and closure. This is the most variable stage, because it depends on the jurisdiction, the land owner, local communities and, in some countries, the courts. It often runs in parallel with the studies.

5. Financing and construction decision: about 1 to 3 years

Once the feasibility study and key permits are in hand, the board decides whether to build, and the company arranges debt, equity, streams or royalties to pay for it. S&P Global measured this step at 1.5 years on average across all metals and 1.2 years for gold.

6. Construction and commissioning: 2 to 4 years

Construction covers the pit or underground access, the processing plant, tailings storage, power, water and camp. Commissioning means testing the plant with ore. The average in S&P Global’s sample was 2.3 years from the start of construction to startup.

7. Ramp-up to design capacity: 6 months to 2 years

First gold or first concentrate is not the same as steady production. Plants usually take months to reach their nameplate rate (the design throughput). Côté Gold in Ontario reached its nameplate rate of 36,000 tonnes per day about 15 months after its first gold pour, IAMGOLD reported in June 2025.

▶ How gold is found, drilled, crushed, leached and refined, step by step. · 5:27

Average time from discovery to production in each country

The 15.7-year global figure counts only mines that actually started producing. That flatters places where few mines get built, because projects still stuck in development are left out. To correct for this, S&P Global’s 2024 study for the National Mining Association added 141 projects that are still in development and assumed, optimistically, that each would start producing by 2030. On that wider basis of 268 mines, development times were:

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Development time including projects still in development

Average years, discovery to first production (startup assumed by 2030 where unknown)

• Zambia: 34 years, the longest in the study.
• United States: almost 29 years, the second longest.
• Canada: 27 years.
• Australia: 20 years.

On the same basis, gold mines took 20.8 years globally and 24.2 years in the United States, while copper took 24.1 years globally and 31.8 years in the United States. MINING.COM’s summary of the report notes that Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Laos had some of the shortest development times, at roughly 10 to 15 years.

The study also found that only three U.S. mines in its sample had come online since 2002 (Pogo in Alaska, Ruby Hill in Nevada and Eagle in Michigan), and none of them were on federal land, where the permitting path is more complex. Eagle moved fast because Michigan issued its state permit about a year after the feasibility study.

Why permitting stretches mine timelines

On U.S. federal land, a mining company files a plan of operations with the Bureau of Land Management or the Forest Service. When a project needs a full environmental impact statement (EIS) under the National Environmental Policy Act, that review alone takes years. The Council on Environmental Quality found that EISs completed between 2010 and 2018 took an average of 4.5 years from notice of intent to record of decision, with a median of 3.5 years. One quarter took more than six years.

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Gold and copper development times: global vs United States

Average years, operating and non-operating mines

Litigation can add years after the permits are issued, and some projects never get through. In January 2023 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued a Final Determination restricting disposal of mine material in parts of the Bristol Bay watershed, blocking the Pebble copper-gold project as proposed. S&P Global lists Pebble as discovered in 1990 and Resolution Copper in Arizona as discovered in 1995, neither in production.

Outside the United States, permitting times vary just as much. What tends to shorten them, according to both the World Bank and S&P Global, is a predictable process with a single lead agency, early engagement with communities and land holders, and stable rules.

▶ The seven main environmental impacts of mining that permits are designed to manage. · 2:31

Real examples: how long recent mines took

Company records show how individual projects compare with the averages:

Kamoa-Kakula is a useful case. Ivanhoe geologists discovered the Kamoa deposit in 2008, and the much higher-grade Kakula deposit followed in 2016. Copper concentrate production started on 25 May 2021, which Ivanhoe described as the result of 24 years of exploration and development work in the country. In other words, the clock you choose (first licence, first drill hole, or the specific discovery) changes the answer, so always check how a lead time was measured before comparing it.

In Newfoundland, New Found Gold’s project is an example of a newer discovery still in the studies stage; see our article on New Found Gold’s Newfoundland gold project.

What speeds up or slows down a mine project

The factors below come up again and again in the studies cited on this page.

Things that shorten the timeline

• High grade and simple metallurgy. A rich gold deposit that gives up its gold to standard cyanide leaching needs less test work and a smaller plant.
• Existing infrastructure. Roads, grid power and water close by reduce both cost and construction time.
• A clear, single permitting path. State or provincial permits on private land, as at Eagle, can move faster than multi-agency federal reviews.
• Strong metal prices at the right time. The World Bank found that rising copper prices around discovery shortened lead times by two to three years in low-income countries.
• Better targeting before drilling. Spending less time drilling poor targets shortens the riskiest stage.

Things that lengthen it

• Large, low-grade or deep deposits that need block caving or very large plants.
• Complex ore that needs new processing routes or extensive test work.
• Remote locations that need new roads, ports or power lines.
• Community, land and water disputes, and litigation after permits are issued.
• Funding gaps when metal prices fall or equity markets close to junior miners.

How to estimate the timeline for your own project

Consultants and licence owners can build a first-pass schedule by taking each stage in turn and asking what is already done:

1. Locate the project on the stage list. Is there a drill-defined resource, a study, a permit application?
2. Start from the benchmark. Use S&P Global’s gold split (11.9 years of discovery and studies, 1.2 years to a decision, 2.1 years of construction) or the copper split (12.4, 1.4 and 2.4 years) as the base case.
3. Adjust for the jurisdiction. Check the permits the project will need, which agencies issue them and how long recent comparable projects took. For U.S. federal land, allow for an EIS of several years where one is required.
4. Adjust for the deposit. Higher grade, simpler ore and nearby infrastructure argue for a shorter schedule; complex ore and remote sites for a longer one.
5. Add ramp-up. Budget months to two years from first production to design capacity.
6. Put a value on time. Every year of delay pushes cash flow further out and lowers its present value. Use the calculator below to see the effect.

If you are valuing a project for a sale or purchase, the stage matters as much as the size of the deposit; our guide on how to sell a mine explains how buyers price each stage, and the mining profitability overview covers the margins a project has to earn once it runs.

Can technology shorten the early stages?

Most of the time in a mine timeline is spent before the construction decision, so tools that help explorers drop poor ground earlier have the most room to help. Satellite multispectral imagery can map surface alteration minerals, iron oxides and structures across a whole licence before any field crew arrives, and that helps decide where to sample and drill first. It does not replace drilling, assays or a qualified person’s resource estimate, and it cannot shorten permitting or construction. Farmonaut offers satellite-based mineral detection mapping for this early screening step, and project owners can send details through the mining query form or the contact page.

▶ What AI really does in mineral exploration, where it fails and how to check a claim. · 4:37

Frequently asked questions

How long does it take to develop a gold mine?

Gold mines that came online between 2002 and 2023 took 15.2 years on average from discovery to first production, according to S&P Global. About 11.9 of those years went into discovery, exploration and studies.

How long does it take to develop a new copper mine?

Copper mines in the same S&P Global sample averaged 16.2 years. When projects still in development are included and assumed to start by 2030, the copper average rises to 24.1 years globally and 31.8 years in the United States.

What are the stages of mine development?

The usual stages are exploration and discovery, resource definition, economic studies (preliminary assessment, prefeasibility, feasibility), permitting, financing and the construction decision, construction and commissioning, and ramp-up to design capacity.

Which stage takes the longest?

Discovery, exploration and studies together take the longest, about 12 years on average. Permitting is the most variable single stage and can run from a couple of years to more than a decade.

Why do mines take longer in the United States?

S&P Global points to multi-agency reviews on federal land, environmental impact statements that average several years, and a high rate of litigation. Including stalled projects, U.S. mines take almost 29 years on average, second only to Zambia.

Which countries develop mines fastest?

In S&P Global’s wider sample, Ghana, the DR Congo and Laos had some of the shortest development times, at roughly 10 to 15 years. Australia averaged 20 years and Canada 27 years.

How long does mine construction take?

Construction to startup averaged 2.3 years across all metals and 2.1 years for gold in S&P Global’s data. The IEA put the construction phase at 4-5 years for major mines that started between 2010 and 2019.

Are mine lead times getting longer?

Recent data says yes: mines that started producing in 2020-2023 took 17.9 years on average, compared with 15.7 years for the full 2002-2023 sample, according to S&P Global.

Is the timeline measured from the first drill hole or the first licence?

S&P Global measures from the discovery date to first production. Company statements may use other start points, such as the first exploration licence, so a single project can be quoted with very different lead times.

How long is ramp-up after first production?

Usually between six months and two years. Côté Gold took about 15 months from first gold to its nameplate rate of 36,000 tonnes per day.