Reviewed August 2026 against DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and University of Illinois farmdoc.

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The short answer

No — fertilizer is not a petroleum product. Nitrogen fertilizers such as anhydrous ammonia, urea and UAN are built from natural gas, not crude oil: methane is split into hydrogen by steam methane reforming, and that hydrogen is combined with nitrogen pulled straight out of the air. Phosphate and potash aren’t manufactured from any fuel at all; they are mined rocks. Petroleum touches your fertilizer bill through diesel, rail and ocean freight — not through the molecule.

That distinction is worth money. In 2026 it is exactly why 0-0-60 potash barely moved while urea swung by hundreds of dollars a ton. Below you’ll find the current U.S. retail numbers with their dates, a method for pricing 15-15-15 and 13-13-13 per ton from their component nutrients, a calculator that runs the math on today’s prices instead of ours, and the official sources that will be fresher than this page a year from now.

What’s on this page

• Is fertilizer a petroleum product? The precise answer
• How fertilizer is actually made from a fossil feedstock
• The 2026 split: gas-linked nutrients vs mined nutrients
• 15-15-15 and 13-13-13 fertilizer price per ton: build it yourself
• Blend cost calculator
• 0-0-60 fertilizer price: what moves potash
• How to get a fresher price than this page
• FAQ

Is fertilizer a petroleum product? The precise answer

Petroleum products are the things that come out of a crude oil refinery — gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, lubricants, petrochemical feedstocks. Nitrogen fertilizer is not one of them. It is made in an ammonia plant from natural gas, which is a separate hydrocarbon with a separate supply chain, a separate price benchmark (Henry Hub rather than WTI or Brent) and, frequently, a separate price direction.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is unambiguous about the input: 98% of ammonia plants worldwide use fossil fuels as feedstock, split 72% natural gas and 22% coal, and within the United States natural-gas-fed plants account for 92% of production. In 2020, U.S. ammonia manufacture consumed roughly 1.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day — 6.5% of all U.S. industrial natural gas use — according to the EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update of 1 April 2021. U.S. ammonia output rose 46% between 2015 and 2020, from 11.6 to 17.0 million metric tons a year, placing the country third behind China and Russia.

How much of the cost is that gas? CF Industries, the largest North American nitrogen producer, states in its 2026 fertilizer prices FAQ that “more than 70% of the variable cost to produce ammonia is from the cost of natural gas,” and that every one of its facilities uses natural gas as the feedstock. That single figure explains most of what you see on a nitrogen invoice.

Where petroleum genuinely does enter

• ✔ Freight. Anhydrous moves by pipeline, rail and truck; potash from Saskatchewan reaches the U.S. Corn Belt by unit train; imported urea arrives by ocean vessel. Every leg burns refined fuel, and every fuel surcharge lands in the delivered price.
• ✔ Field application. Diesel for the applicator, the tender truck and the tillage pass that follows.
• ✔ Sulfuric acid for phosphates. Making DAP and MAP requires sulfuric acid, and a large share of world sulfur is recovered at oil refineries and sour gas plants. This is a real petroleum tie, but it enters as one input to one nutrient rather than as the backbone of the product. The USGS publishes recovered-sulfur statistics if you want to trace that chain.
• ⚠ Shared shocks. Oil and fertilizer often move together because the same geopolitical events hit both. In 2026 that link was visible: DTN attributed the March–May surge to conflict-driven disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — a shipping-lane event, not a chemistry event.

How fertilizer is made from a fossil feedstock, step by step

People search for “how is fertilizer made from petroleum” because the process is genuinely fossil-based — the fossil is just gas, not oil. Here is the chain, from wellhead to bag.

1. Steam methane reforming (SMR). Methane is reacted with high-temperature steam at 700–1,000 °C under 3–25 bar pressure over a catalyst, yielding hydrogen, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. The U.S. Department of Energy notes that 95% of U.S. hydrogen is produced by natural gas reforming in large central plants.
2. Haber-Bosch synthesis. That hydrogen is combined with nitrogen separated from ordinary air to form ammonia, NH₃ — sold directly as anhydrous ammonia at 82% N. The nitrogen in your fertilizer literally comes from the atmosphere; the gas supplies the hydrogen and the process heat.
3. Upgrading. Ammonia is reacted with CO₂ to make urea (46% N), oxidized to nitric acid and then to ammonium nitrate, or blended with urea into UAN solutions at 28% or 32% N. Each step adds cost on top of the ammonia.
4. Phosphates. Ammonia plus phosphoric acid gives DAP (18-46-0) and MAP (11-52-0) — which is why phosphate prices carry a partial nitrogen signal.
5. Potash. No synthesis at all. Potassium chloride is mined or solution-mined, crushed, floated and dried. Energy is a cost; hydrocarbon feedstock is not a component.

The 2026 split: gas-linked nutrients vs mined nutrients

The clearest evidence for the distinction is what happened to different nutrients over the same twelve months. DTN’s retail fertilizer report for the week of 6–10 July 2026 priced anhydrous ammonia at $1,032/ton — 34% above the same week of 2025 — while potash at $494/ton was up just 3%. Both faced the same freight market. Only one has a natural gas feedstock.

Note the ordering. Anhydrous ammonia — the product closest to the gas molecule — moved most. Urea, one processing step further downstream and heavily traded internationally, moved less. Potash, which never sees a reformer, moved least of all. If fertilizer were a petroleum product in any meaningful sense, that ranking would not exist.

15-15-15 and 13-13-13 fertilizer price per ton: build it yourself

There is no published national quote for 15-15-15 or 13-13-13, and that is why searching for one is frustrating. These are blends, mixed to order at a local plant from three commodity products whose prices are published. Once you know the recipe, you can price any grade to within a few dollars — and you can tell whether the quote in front of you is fair.

Start with what is physically in the bag. A grade is a percentage by weight: 15-15-15 means 15% nitrogen, 15% available phosphate (P₂O₅) and 15% soluble potash (K₂O) — 300 lb of each per 2,000 lb ton, 900 lb of nutrient and 1,100 lb of everything else.

The four-step recipe

Using the three commodity products DTN quotes weekly — urea 46-0-0, DAP 18-46-0 and potash 0-0-60:

1. Set the phosphate first, because DAP is the only source that also carries nitrogen. For 300 lb of P₂O₅: 300 ÷ 0.46 = 652 lb of DAP, which delivers 652 × 0.18 = 117 lb of N for free.
2. Fill the nitrogen gap with urea. 300 − 117 = 183 lb of N still needed; 183 ÷ 0.46 = 397 lb of urea.
3. Set the potash. 300 ÷ 0.60 = 500 lb of 0-0-60.
4. Add filler to 2,000 lb. Ingredients total 1,549 lb, so 451 lb of carrier completes the ton.

At the DTN prices for 6–10 July 2026 — urea $714, DAP $912, potash $494 per ton — the raw materials in one ton of 15-15-15 cost $297 of DAP + $142 of urea + $124 of potash = about $563. Blending, bagging, storage and dealer margin sit on top of that; ask your retailer to itemise the spread.

The finding that should change how you buy

Run the same recipe for 13-13-13 and the materials come to roughly $488 per ton. That looks like a $75 saving. It is not. 13-13-13 contains 780 lb of nutrient against 900 lb in 15-15-15, and on a cost-per-pound-of-nutrient basis both land at about $0.62 per pound. So does 10-10-10, at roughly $375 per ton. The three grades are the same product diluted to different degrees; the cheaper ton is simply the smaller ton.

This is where the freight bill decides it. You haul 2,000 lb either way, so moving 13-13-13 costs you 15% more freight per pound of nutrient delivered than 15-15-15, and 50% more if you drop to 10-10-10. On any haul longer than a few miles, the higher-analysis grade wins unless your soil test genuinely calls for the lower rate.

Grade comparison at July 2026 component prices

Quoted prices are DTN U.S. average retail for the week of 6–10 July 2026. Blend costs are calculated from those three quotes using the recipe above and exclude blending, bagging, freight and dealer margin. Your local number will differ; the method will not.

Blend cost calculator

Enter today’s quotes for the three commodity products and the calculator rebuilds any grade from scratch.

Assumptions: a 2,000 lb short ton; urea at 46% N, DAP at 18% N and 46% P₂O₅, muriate of potash at 60% K₂O. Phosphate is sourced from DAP first and its nitrogen credited against the urea requirement. Excluded: blending plant margin, bagging, freight to farm, application cost, sulfur and micronutrient additions, and any grade that requires MAP, ammonium sulfate or potassium sulfate.

0-0-60 fertilizer price: what actually moves potash

0-0-60 is muriate of potash — potassium chloride, KCl — guaranteed at 60% K₂O. USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service reports the grade as "Potash (White 0-0-62)" in its Illinois series, so read the guaranteed analysis before comparing two quotes; a 62% product carries about 3% more potassium per ton than a 60% one.

Three things set the price, and none of them is a refinery:

• ✔ Import dependence. Net imports have accounted for over 90% of U.S. potassium consumption by volume since 2020, with Canada supplying more than 80% of those imports, according to the University of Illinois farmdoc daily analysis of 4 February 2025. Trade policy toward Canada is therefore a first-order potash price risk.
• ✔ Mine and rail capacity. Saskatchewan's basin dominates North American supply. Our write-up of the Saskatchewan potash mines covers who operates what and how output is staged.
• ✔ Ocean and inland freight. This is the genuine oil linkage. It is real but second-order — which is why potash gained just 3% over the year to July 2026 while anhydrous gained 34%.

For historical perspective on how violent potash can get when supply is disrupted rather than energy: the USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report dated 24 February 2022 showed potash at $770–$830 per ton, averaging $808.33, with anhydrous ammonia at $1,503.50. Against the $494 potash average of July 2026, that peak was roughly 64% higher.

Where a mineral will come from — and how secure that supply is — is a spatial question before it is a commodity question. Farmonaut's satellite-based mineral detection screens evaporite and salt-basin ground remotely, and our satellite-driven 3D mineral prospectivity mapping ranks candidate zones before anyone commits drilling budget. Buyers and traders assessing origin risk can request scope and pricing through the mining query form.

How to get a fresher price than this page

Every figure above carries a date because every one of them will move. These are the primary sources, with their publication cadence, so you can always beat this article's numbers:

A durable buying checklist

1. Soil test first. A potassium recommendation you cannot justify from a lab report is money spent on freight.
2. Convert every quote to cost per pound of nutrient before comparing. The calculator above does it; a $488 ton and a $563 ton can be identical value.
3. Read the guaranteed analysis, not the marketing name. 0-0-60 and 0-0-62 are different products at the same shelf position.
4. Track the gas curve for nitrogen, the Canadian border for potash. Those are the two variables that explain most of what your bill does.
5. Ask for the blend fee separately. If a dealer will not separate materials from margin, price the recipe yourself and negotiate on the gap.

What would change this picture

Nitrogen is the volatile leg and it will stay that way while more than 70% of ammonia's variable cost is gas. EIA's July 2026 STEO expects Henry Hub near $3.57/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2026, rising to about $3.78/MMBtu by the fourth quarter of 2027, with record Permian-led production keeping inventories high. If that forecast holds, the domestic feedstock cost stays moderate and the swing factor becomes international: European and Asian gas, plus freight through chokepoints. CF Industries notes the Middle East supplies roughly 30% of globally traded ammonia and 35% of globally traded urea, which is why a Strait of Hormuz disruption showed up as a 35% one-month jump in U.S. retail urea between the weeks of 23–27 February and 23–27 March 2026, per DTN's 1 April 2026 report.

Two structural changes are worth watching. First, low-carbon ammonia: CF Industries has a $3.7 billion ammonia project with startup expected in 2029, which would begin decoupling some nitrogen supply from the gas price. Second, trade policy on Canadian potash, given the import dependence above. Neither turns fertilizer into a petroleum product — but either could reset the arithmetic in this article.

FAQ

The takeaway

Fertilizer is not refined from oil, and the price data proves it: over the year to July 2026, the products closest to natural gas rose 34% while mined potash rose 3%. Understanding which nutrient sits on which side of that line tells you what to hedge, what to prepay and what to leave to the spot market. And because 15-15-15, 13-13-13 and 10-10-10 are all built from the same three commodities, you never have to accept a blend quote on faith — price the recipe, compare on cost per pound of nutrient, and let the dealer justify the spread.