Barrick Gold Stock Outlook: What Moves the Shares

Nobody can say whether Barrick shares will rise, and this page does not try to. What the data does show is how Barrick earns money. In its 2026 outlook, Barrick says a US$100 per ounce move in the gold price changes attributable EBITDA by about US$300 million, and its second-quarter results (10 August 2026) show a realized price of US$4,417 per ounce against an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,866. Those two numbers, plus production, cost, cash returns and a few company events, are what any Barrick Gold stock forecast has to rest on.

Below you will find the company facts checked against its filings, the quarterly margin data, a calculator that turns your own gold price into an earnings change, the mine-by-mine outlook, and a checklist of what to watch. Prices and share counts are dated. We give no price targets and no buy or sell views. Not investment advice.

What can and cannot be predicted about Barrick shares

A forecast for a mining share is really two forecasts stacked together. The first is the gold price, which no analyst predicts well. The second is what the company does with a given price: how many ounces it mines, what each ounce costs, how much tax and royalty it pays, and how much cash it returns. The second part is closer to arithmetic, because the company publishes guidance and sensitivities. That is why this page spends more time on the second part.

A few terms, once, so the rest reads easily. Realized gold price is the average price Barrick actually received for the ounces it sold in the period. AISC (all-in sustaining cost) is the company’s measure of what it costs to produce and sell an ounce, including mine upkeep, royalties and overheads. The gap between the two is the margin per ounce before tax, interest and the share that goes to partners. EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. Cash flow after capital spending (FCF below) is operating cash flow less capital spending. Attributable means Barrick’s own share of a joint venture or partly owned mine, not 100% of it.

Gold itself was trading at US$4,157.70 per ounce (Kitco spot bid, 15 October 2026, 2:51 p.m. New York time, see Kitco live gold price). A contract-for-difference quote tracked by Trading Economics put the record high at US$5,608.35 in January 2026, and Barrick’s own table shows the quarterly average market price falling from US$4,873 in the first quarter to US$4,506 in the second. A price in that range is far above the roughly US$3,280 average of the second quarter of 2025, which is the main reason Barrick’s earnings are much higher than a year ago.

Barrick Mining Corporation: the company behind the ticker

Barrick Gold Corporation is now called Barrick Mining Corporation. Its 2025 annual report describes it as formerly Barrick Gold Corporation, and the shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange as B (formerly GOLD) and on the Toronto Stock Exchange as ABX. Searches for “Barrick Gold” still reach the same company.

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Barrick gold output by mine, 2025

Thousand ounces, Barrick’s attributable share; eight largest of ten operations

The same report says Barrick holds interests in eleven producing gold mines and three producing copper mines, including five it classes as Tier One gold assets (large, long-life, lower-cost mines by its own definition). The gold mines are in the United States, the Dominican Republic, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Argentina and Papua New Guinea. The copper mines are in Zambia (Lumwana), Chile (Zaldívar) and Saudi Arabia (Jabal Sayid). Jabal Sayid is a copper mine, not a gold mine as some older summaries of Barrick say.

In 2025 Barrick produced 3.26 million ounces of gold and 220,000 tonnes of copper, in line with guidance, at a cost of sales of US$1,697 and an AISC of US$1,637 per ounce, according to its fourth-quarter release of 5 February 2026. About 100 tonnes of gold is a little over 3% of the roughly 3,300 tonnes the USGS estimates the world mined in 2025 (our arithmetic: 3.26 million troy ounces is about 101 tonnes). Barrick sold Hemlo and Tongon during 2025, so the 2026 base is smaller: its own comparison is 3.03 million ounces for 2025 once those two mines are excluded.

Production is concentrated. Nevada Gold Mines, the joint venture in which Barrick holds 61.5%, supplied about half of 2025 attributable gold. Nevada also accounts for roughly 64% of US gold mine output (USGS, 2026). For the geology behind that, see our guide to gold deposits in Nevada.

How the gold price drives Barrick’s profit per ounce

Gold miners have fixed-looking costs and a variable selling price, so a rising price widens the margin faster than it raises costs. The table shows the pattern in Barrick’s own quarterly figures. All values are US$ per ounce, from the second-quarter 2026 release; the margin column is our subtraction of AISC from the realized price.

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Gold price received vs cost per ounce, a year apart

US$ per ounce, Barrick gold, quarterly

Two things stand out. Revenue rose far more than output: second-quarter revenue was US$5.29 billion, up 44% from US$3.68 billion a year earlier, on almost the same ounces. And costs did not stand still. Barrick reports that gold cost of sales rose from US$1,654 to US$1,993 per ounce year on year, because of lower grades at Carlin, Cortez and North Mara, higher fuel costs and higher royalties linked to the stronger price. Royalties are a built-in brake: the higher the gold price, the more of each extra dollar goes to governments.

One example is Loulo-Gounkoto in Mali, where the 2025 annual report says the average royalty rate is now 18% under the 2023 Mining Code. That is one reason Barrick states that its mine costs have become more sensitive to the gold price.

What a gold price move does to Barrick’s earnings

Barrick publishes a sensitivity table in its 2025 annual report. Its 2026 guidance assumes a gold price of US$4,500 per ounce. Against that, a change of US$100 per ounce moves consolidated EBITDA by about US$650 million and attributable EBITDA (Barrick’s own share) by about US$300 million, and moves total cash costs and AISC by about US$5 per ounce, because royalties rise with the price. For copper, a US$0.25 per pound change in an assumed US$5.50 per pound moves attributable EBITDA by about US$110 million.

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Margin per ounce: realized price minus AISC

US$ per ounce; our subtraction of Barrick’s reported figures

Some stock articles claim that a 10% gold move shifts mining shares by 15% to 20%; we found no company or exchange source for such a multiplier. Share prices also depend on what investors already expect, so no single multiplier holds. The sensitivity above is the company’s own, and it covers earnings only.

The calculator uses those company figures. Enter a gold price (use today’s price), an AISC and your own ounce volume; the guidance price and the US$300 million sensitivity are fixed inputs from Barrick that you can change.

Production and cost outlook by mine

Barrick’s 2026 guidance is 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces of gold and 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes of copper, with gold AISC of US$1,760 to US$1,950 per ounce. In the second quarter it produced 796,000 ounces against guidance of 730,000 to 770,000, kept full-year guidance unchanged, and cut attributable capital spending guidance to US$3.8 to US$4.2 billion. The outlook for later years, from the 2025 annual report, is 3.30 to 3.65 million ounces in 2027 and 3.40 to 3.75 million in 2028, driven by higher output at Cortez, Loulo-Gounkoto, Kibali, North Mara and Phoenix and by Nevada Gold Mines in 2028.

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Barrick gold production: 2025 actual and outlook range

Million ounces, attributable; low and high end of the range

The table lists the eight largest gold operations by 2025 attributable output, with Barrick’s share, the 2026 production guidance range and the 2026 AISC range (2025 annual report).

Loulo-Gounkoto in Mali (80%) made only 29,000 ounces in 2025 because operations were disrupted, and is guided to 260,000 to 290,000 ounces in 2026 at an AISC of US$2,640 to US$2,900, the highest on the list. In its second-quarter release Barrick said the restart was ahead of schedule. Its fourth-quarter 2025 release records a settlement payment to the Government of Mali in November 2025. Porgera in Papua New Guinea (24.5%) added 92,000 ounces in 2025.

Growth projects are small in number. Fourmile in Nevada has 20 drill rigs working, decline development is expected to start in the third quarter of 2026 and a prefeasibility study is targeted for 2028. The Lumwana copper expansion in Zambia targets first copper at the end of the first quarter of 2028. Barrick’s 2026 exploration and evaluation budget is US$320 to US$350 million, with US$150 to US$160 million of drilling at Fourmile.

▶ Follows gold from rock to ring: drilling, crushing, leaching, carbon, melting and refining. · 5:27

Dividends, buybacks and cash flow

Barrick pays a fixed base dividend of US$0.175 per share each quarter, plus a year-end top-up. Its stated policy is to return 50% of attributable FCF over a year, with the actual payout allowed to run above or below that. On top of dividends, the company repurchased US$1.2 billion of shares in the second quarter, taking total shareholder returns in the quarter to US$1.50 billion, and US$1.50 billion of shares in full-year 2025.

The cash flow is lumpy, which is a fact worth knowing before reading any quarterly headline. Attributable FCF was US$1,213 million in the first quarter of 2026 and US$141 million in the second; for the half-year it was US$1,354 million, against US$435 million in the first half of 2025. Barrick had net cash of about US$1.2 billion at 30 June 2026 (cash of US$5.93 billion against debt of US$4.68 billion). The US$1.95 billion payment from Newmont, due within thirty days of 10 August, comes on top.

The North American IPO and the Newmont agreement

In February 2026 Barrick’s board decided to prepare an initial public offering (IPO) of its North American gold assets. On 10 August 2026 it announced an agreement with Newmont, its partner in Nevada Gold Mines, that settles all outstanding disputes and gives Newmont’s consent to the IPO. Under the deal Barrick moves its Fourmile project into the joint venture and Newmont contributes its Mike and Fiberline projects, creating what Barrick calls a nearly 100-million-ounce gold complex, and Newmont pays Barrick US$1.95 billion in cash. Barrick says the IPO remains on track for completion by the end of 2026, with Mark Hill as chief executive of the new company. The IPO has not happened until Barrick files and prices it, and Barrick’s own filings are the source for its status.

The structure matters for any share-price view, because analysts would value the North American business and the rest of Barrick separately. We do not rate either. The filings are the source for terms, timing and ownership.

Risks that move Barrick shares

• Gold price and the dollar. Gold has fallen from its January record. The World Gold Council reported that total demand in the second quarter was flat at 1,269 tonnes, that central banks added a net 289 tonnes (up 62% on a year earlier) and that jewellery demand fell 17% as high prices bit (World Gold Council, 30 July 2026).
• Costs. Cost of sales rose US$339 per ounce in a year. Fuel and lower grades are the drivers Barrick names.
• Host-country terms. Mali is the clearest case: a mining code change, a dispute, a settlement and then a restart. Barrick also operates in Tanzania, the DRC and Argentina.
• Execution. Production guidance for 2026 is 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces, below the 3.26 million of 2025.
• Structure. The IPO and the joint venture changes can alter who owns which cash flows.
• Safety and community. Barrick says it has invested US$90 million in safety technology this year; incidents and community disputes can stop production.

How analysts build a gold-miner forecast

Most brokers use a net asset value (NAV) model: they project each mine’s production and costs over its life, apply a long-run gold price and a discount rate, add the company’s cash and subtract debt, then divide by shares. A second approach, used alongside, multiplies expected cash flow or EBITDA by a multiple taken from peer companies. Both are sensitive to the gold price deck (the price assumptions the analyst uses) and the discount rate.

That is why published targets differ so much. Two analysts can agree on the ounces and disagree on the price deck by US$500. You can reproduce a simple version of this yourself: take guidance ounces, subtract AISC from your price, subtract tax and partner shares, and divide by shares outstanding. Barrick reports a weighted average of about 1,666 million diluted shares for the second quarter of 2026. The calculator above does the first steps; it leaves out tax, interest, minority shares and growth capital, which is why it is a screen and not a valuation.

Brokers’ price targets are published in their own research and are summarised on market-data sites. We do not reproduce them: they change often and we cannot verify the models behind them. For related reading on how gold-linked income works, see mining royalties and streams, and for how a copper-heavy mining stock list is screened, copper stocks screened by data. Our companion post on Barrick outlook models looks at the modelling side.

Will Barrick stock go up? A checklist instead of a prediction

Instead of a guess, watch these items, each of which is published by the company or a neutral body:

1. The gold price against Barrick’s US$4,500 guidance assumption. Below it, earnings sit under plan; above it, over.
2. Quarterly AISC against the US$1,760 to US$1,950 guidance range. The second quarter was US$1,866.
3. Gold production against 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces, and the mix between Nevada, Mali and Africa.
4. FCF, and whether the year-end dividend top-up follows the 50% policy.
5. IPO filings and pricing, and any change to the Nevada Gold Mines structure.
6. Host-country news from Mali, Tanzania, the DRC and Argentina.
7. Gold demand data from the World Gold Council each quarter: central banks, ETFs, jewellery.

Compare the answers with your own time horizon and risk limits, ideally with a licensed adviser. Share prices can fall even when every item above looks good.

Where satellite data fits in gold exploration

Barrick spends hundreds of millions of dollars a year on exploration because reserves run down as mines produce. Satellites cannot see gold, but multispectral images can map the iron-oxide staining, clay minerals and fault patterns that often surround gold systems, which helps a team decide where to put the first drill holes. That sits ahead of any resource estimate and is not a substitute for drilling. Farmonaut offers this kind of satellite screening for licence areas; you can read about the satellite mineral detection service, ask for a price through the mining quote form, or reach the team through the contact page.

▶ Explains how satellites map the rust stains, clays and faults around gold systems, since they cannot see gold itself. · 4:25

We cover a connected topic in Northern Dynasty Stock: Price Chart and What Moves It.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a Barrick share price prediction on this page?

This page gives no price prediction. Barrick’s own sensitivity is the useful figure: US$100 per ounce on gold moves attributable EBITDA by about US$300 million. Broker price targets are published by the brokers.

Is Barrick Gold still called Barrick Gold?

No. The company is Barrick Mining Corporation, formerly Barrick Gold Corporation. It trades as B on the NYSE (formerly GOLD) and ABX on the TSX.

Will Barrick stock go up?

Nobody can know. Gold price, costs, production and the IPO all matter, and the checklist above lists what to watch. This is not investment advice.

What was Barrick’s gold production last quarter?

796,000 ounces in the second quarter of 2026, above the 730,000 to 770,000 guidance range, with an AISC of US$1,866 per ounce.

Does Barrick pay a dividend?

Yes. The base dividend is US$0.175 per share each quarter, with a year-end top-up under a policy that targets 50% of attributable FCF.

How much does a gold price change move Barrick’s earnings?

Barrick states about US$300 million of attributable EBITDA for each US$100 per ounce, measured against a US$4,500 assumption.

What is Barrick’s North American IPO?

A planned initial public offering of a minority stake in a newly formed company that is expected to hold Barrick’s North American gold assets, including its Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo interests. Barrick says it is on track for completion by the end of 2026. It is not complete until Barrick files and prices it.

Where does Barrick mine gold?

The United States, the Dominican Republic, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Argentina and Papua New Guinea. Its copper mines are in Zambia, Chile and Saudi Arabia.

What happened at Loulo-Gounkoto in Mali?

Output fell to 29,000 ounces in 2025 during a dispute with the Malian government. Barrick recorded a settlement with Mali in November 2025 and reported an ahead-of-schedule restart in its second-quarter 2026 results.

How is the gold price shown above sourced?

Kitco’s spot bid on 15 October 2026 is US$4,157.70 per ounce. Check a live quote before using any price in the calculator.