Bauxite Price per Ton and Forecasts: Chart and Drivers

Bauxite sold for about US$77 to US$90 per metric ton in September 2026: US$77 in the United States, US$80 in Australia and US$90 in China, according to the IMARC Bauxite Pricing Report (Q3 2026). Seaborne ore from Guinea was assessed at US$71.5 per dry metric ton delivered to China on 28 August 2026 (Mysteel). Below you will find the price history by quarter, what the main forecasters expect next, why alumina moves differently, and a calculator that turns your own tonnage and price into a shipment value and an alumina equivalent.

Bauxite price per ton: where it stands now

Bauxite is the ore that almost all aluminium starts from. It is a weathered rock rich in aluminium hydroxide minerals, mainly gibbsite, with some boehmite and diaspore, as the Arkansas Geological Survey explains. It is a bulk commodity. That means there is no exchange price like the LME price for aluminium. Prices are set in contracts between miners and refineries, and they are tracked by price-reporting agencies.

Three kinds of number appear in searches for the bauxite price per ton, and they are not the same thing:

• Market price indexes by country. IMARC publishes a quarterly price for the US, China, Germany, Australia and other markets. In September 2026 it put the US at US$77/t, China at US$90/t, Germany at US$79/t and Australia at US$80/t.
• Seaborne spot assessments. Mysteel and other agencies assess cargoes by grade, usually per dry metric ton (dmt, the weight after moisture is removed) and on a CIF basis (cost, insurance and freight paid to the buyer’s port). On 28 August 2026 Mysteel had Guinea bauxite (45% alumina, 3% silica) at US$71.5/dmt and Australian bauxite (50% alumina, 6.5% silica) at US$66.5/dmt, both delivered to China (Mysteel via AlCircle).
• Customs unit values. The US Geological Survey divides the declared value of imports by their tonnage. Crude dry bauxite imported into the US averaged US$31 per ton f.a.s. (the value alongside the ship at the export port) in the first eight months of 2025, before ocean freight (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026).

So when one site says bauxite costs about US$30 a ton and another says US$80, both can be right. The lower figure is the value of ore at the export port. The higher figures include freight, handling and the margin of the market they describe.

Is bauxite expensive?

Per ton, no. It is one of the cheaper ores traded by sea. As a rule of thumb, about 4 tons of dried bauxite make 2 tons of alumina, which make 1 ton of aluminium (USGS, 2026). USGS put the average US aluminium ingot price at an estimated 180 cents per pound in 2025, or roughly US$3,970 per metric ton (USGS Aluminum, 2026). At US$80 per ton of ore, the bauxite in one ton of aluminium costs around US$320, less than a tenth of the metal’s value. Most of the cost sits in refining and smelting, which use large amounts of energy.

Bauxite price chart by quarter

The quarterly series below comes from IMARC, as compiled by AlCircle for 2025 and read from IMARC’s report page for 2026. Prices peaked in the second quarter of 2025, when China paid about US$99 per ton, then eased as more Guinean ore reached the market (AlCircle, July 2026). In the US, the price moved between US$74 and US$82 over seven quarters, a narrow band.

Chart

Bauxite price by quarter, US and China

US$ per metric ton, Q1 2025 to Q3 2026

The same AlCircle analysis cites CRU figures, reported by Reuters, showing Guinean ore at about US$32 to US$38 per ton FOB (loaded on the ship at the export port, before freight) by late April 2026, the lowest since March 2022. That is the mine-gate end of the chain. The difference between that and a delivered price in China is mostly freight.

Why freight matters so much

Mysteel calculated that the full FOB cost at some Guinean mines had passed US$35 per dmt in August 2026, while Capesize freight on the Guinea to China route reached about US$38 per ton (Mysteel via AlCircle, August 2026). In other words, shipping a ton of ore across two oceans can cost as much as mining it. When bunker fuel or ship rates rise, delivered bauxite prices rise even if demand has not changed. This is the first thing to check when a price forecast surprises you.

Bauxite forecasts: what the forecasters expect

There is no single official bauxite price forecast. Published views fall into three groups, and they measure different things.

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Bauxite price, Q3 2025 vs Q3 2026

US$ per metric ton, selected markets

Market-size forecasts

Persistence Market Research values the global bauxite market at US$17.1 billion in 2026 and expects US$21.3 billion by 2033, growth of 3.2% a year (Persistence Market Research). This is a forecast of total sales value, so it mixes volume and price. It does not tell you the price per ton in any given year.

Trade-flow forecasts

Ship-tracking firm Signal Ocean expects softer global bauxite flows in the fourth quarter of 2026. Guinea introduced an annual export quota of 150 million tons in June 2026, 18% below its 2025 level, but its exports were running 21% higher year-to-date by September, so shipments would need to slow sharply before year-end (Signal Ocean via Hellenic Shipping News). Fewer cargoes from the largest exporter would tend to support delivered prices, although Chinese port stocks can cushion the effect for a while.

Near-term price signals

The most useful short-term signals are monthly contract offers and port stocks. In late August 2026 a major Guinean miner kept its September long-term contract terms broadly unchanged, and inventories at major Chinese ports stood at about 32.7 million tons, 14.1% higher than a year earlier (Mysteel, 28 August 2026). High stocks and steady contract offers point to a range-bound market rather than a sharp move either way.

Read together, these sources suggest delivered bauxite prices held in a band of roughly US$70 to US$90 per ton through 2026, with Guinea’s export policy and freight costs as the main swing factors. Treat any single-number forecast with care, and always check which market, grade and delivery basis it uses.

Alumina price forecast and how alumina differs

Alumina (aluminium oxide, Al2O3) is the white powder made from bauxite in a refinery using the Bayer process. The ore is dissolved in hot caustic soda, the impurities settle out as red mud, aluminium hydroxide is precipitated and then heated (calcined) into alumina. For more on the plant steps, see our guide to alumina mining and refining.

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US alumina import unit value

US$ per metric ton, f.a.s. basis; 2025 estimate

Alumina is traded more actively than bauxite and its price swings much more. On 22 October 2026, alumina FOB Western Australia was US$387 per metric ton, with ocean freight to China at about US$36.5 per ton (SMM, 23 October 2026). SMM said overseas prices had moved above Chinese domestic prices, which was opening a window for China to export alumina. That matters because China made about 93 million of the world’s 150 million tons of alumina in 2025 (USGS, 2026). When Chinese refineries can export, they cap how far overseas prices can rise.

US import prices give a longer view. The average unit value of US alumina imports rose from US$462 per ton in 2021 to an estimated US$590 in 2025 (USGS, 2026). In the first eight months of 2025, metallurgical-grade alumina imports averaged US$595 a ton, 9% more than a year earlier.

Alumina price outlook: what drives it

• Refinery capacity in China and Indonesia. New plants add supply. USGS notes that a 1-million-ton-per-year refinery in Mempawah, Indonesia, shipped its first alumina in April 2025.
• Bauxite cost. About two tons of ore go into each ton of alumina, so a US$10 rise in bauxite adds about US$20 to the ore cost of a ton of alumina.
• Energy and caustic soda. Refining needs heat and chemicals, so energy prices pass into alumina faster than into bauxite.
• Smelter demand. Disruptions at smelters cut alumina demand quickly. Signal Ocean reported bauxite arrivals in the United Arab Emirates down more than 60% in September 2026 because of shipping disruption in the Arabian Gulf.

Global bauxite production by country

World bauxite mine production was an estimated 440 million dry metric tons in 2025, up from 428 million in 2024, according to USGS. Guinea mined about 150 million tons, Australia 97 million and China 87 million. Brazil followed with 33 million. Guinea also holds the largest reserves, 7.4 billion of the world’s estimated 29 billion tons.

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Bauxite mine production, selected countries, 2025

Million dry metric tons, USGS estimates

Supply is concentrated in a few places with thick lateritic deposits, which form when tropical weathering strips silica and leaves aluminium behind. That concentration is why policy in one country moves the world price. In August 2025 the Guinean government revoked the bauxite licences of a subsidiary of a United Arab Emirates-based aluminium producer and gave the concessions to a state-backed company (USGS, 2026). Guinea’s own shipments are dominated by a handful of operators: in January 2026 Société Minière de Boké shipped 6.57 million tons, about a third of the country’s total (AlCircle, 2026).

For a ranked view of producing countries see our list of the top bauxite producing countries, and for Australia’s mines and districts see the Australia mining map.

Australia’s position

Australia is both a large miner and a large refiner. It produced about 17 million tons of alumina in 2025 (USGS, 2026). Its listed refineries include Worsley Alumina with 4.6 million tons per year of capacity, Queensland Alumina (QAL) at 3.9 million and Yarwun at 2.76 million (AlCircle, August 2026). In June 2025 mining began within expanded boundaries at a bauxite mine near Boddington, Western Australia, to feed a 4.7-million-ton-per-year refinery near Collie (USGS, 2026).

The US bauxite and alumina market

The United States mines only a small amount of bauxite and bauxitic clay, in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia, for non-metallurgical uses. USGS estimates reported bauxite consumption at 1.7 million tons in 2025, worth about US$54 million, and net import reliance above 75%.

• Refining: one refinery, at Gramercy, Louisiana, with 1.2 million tons a year of capacity, produced alumina from imported bauxite in 2025. A 500,000-ton-per-year refinery at Burnside, Louisiana, has been idle since August 2020.
• Alumina output and use: about 710,000 tons in 2025. Around 70% went to aluminium smelters and the rest to non-metallurgical alumina products such as abrasives, ceramics, chemicals and refractories.
• Bauxite use: about 63% of the bauxite consumed was refined; the rest went to abrasives, cement, chemicals, proppants (sand-like grains used in oil and gas wells) and refractories.
• Imports: alumina imports rose to an estimated 1.9 million tons in 2025, and net import reliance for alumina reached 71%.

Because the US buys its ore by sea, US prices follow the seaborne market, with freight as the main difference. Readers following the trade side can see our post on US bauxite and aluminum export statistics.

Bauxite shipment value calculator

Use the calculator to estimate the value of a bauxite parcel at your own price and freight, and what it is worth as alumina feed. It uses the USGS rule of thumb that 2 tons of dried bauxite make about 1 ton of alumina. Real ratios depend on the ore’s available alumina and reactive silica, so use your own assay-based ratio if you have one.

Risks that move bauxite prices

1. Export policy in Guinea. The 2026 quota and licence changes show how fast policy in one country can change world supply.
2. Freight and fuel. With freight close to the FOB value of the ore, a change in ship rates moves the delivered price by a large share.
3. Wet seasons. Mysteel reported in August 2026 that the rainy season and high freight were holding back Guinea’s export volumes.
4. Refinery margins. In August 2026 Chinese refineries accepted smaller volumes of a major Guinean miner’s long-term contract because their margins could not absorb higher ore prices (Mysteel, August 2026).
5. Grade. High-silica ore uses more caustic soda in the refinery, so it sells at a discount. On 28 August 2026 Mysteel’s higher-silica Australian grade (53% alumina, 8.5% silica) was US$62/dmt, US$4.5 below the 50/6.5 grade.
6. Environmental rules. Each ton of alumina leaves about 1.23 tons of bauxite residue on average, which must be stored safely and later rehabilitated (International Aluminium Institute). Rules on residue storage, land clearing and closure add cost to new projects.

▶ The seven environmental impacts of mining, explained in clay (2:31). · 2:31

What investors and buyers should check

If you follow bauxite or alumina as an investor, analyst or buyer, these checks keep a forecast honest:

• Basis: FOB or CIF, dry or wet tons, and which market. A US$31 customs value and a US$90 Chinese index price describe different points in the chain.
• Grade: available alumina and reactive silica. Ask for both before comparing prices.
• Date: bauxite assessments change weekly and alumina daily. Quote the date with every price.
• Volume vs value: market-size forecasts in billions of dollars do not tell you price per ton.
• Site activity: for a specific mine, satellite images show pit growth, stockpiles, haul roads and cleared land between reports. Tools for large-scale operations monitoring and fleet management cover the operating side.

Lenders and insurers also use independent checks before they fund or cover a project; see satellite-based risk assessment for loans and insurance. Buyers who need proof of origin can look at product traceability, and refiners reporting emissions from the energy-heavy Bayer process can use carbon footprinting. Developers can pull imagery into their own systems through the satellite API developer docs.

Bauxite exploration and satellite screening

New bauxite supply starts with exploration. Lateritic bauxite sits on flat, deeply weathered plateaus, often under red soils, so the first step is usually mapping where those surfaces and iron-rich soils occur. Our guide to bauxite and bulk-mineral exploration covers the methods. Farmonaut screens licence areas from satellite data in about 5 to 20 business days and returns exploration targets ahead of drilling, not a resource estimate. For a longer view of price drivers, see our bauxite price trend post.

▶ What Farmonaut Mining Pro does with a licence boundary (4:56). · 4:56

Frequently asked questions

What is the price of bauxite per ton?

In September 2026 IMARC put bauxite at US$77 per metric ton in the US, US$80 in Australia and US$90 in China. Seaborne Guinean ore was US$71.5 per dry metric ton delivered to China on 28 August 2026 (Mysteel).

What is the bauxite price forecast?

No official body publishes one price forecast. Persistence Market Research expects the market’s value to grow 3.2% a year to 2033, and Signal Ocean expects lower Guinean shipments in late 2026 under the new export quota, which would tend to support delivered prices.

Why are there such different bauxite prices online?

They use different bases. USGS customs values (about US$31 per ton for US imports in 2025) exclude ocean freight, while market indexes and CIF assessments include freight and handling.

What is bauxite ore cost per ton at the mine?

Mysteel estimated full FOB costs at some Guinean mines above US$35 per dry metric ton in August 2026, and CRU put Guinean FOB prices at about US$32 to US$38 per ton in late April 2026.

What is the current alumina price?

SMM reported alumina at US$387 per metric ton FOB Western Australia on 22 October 2026. Alumina prices change daily, so check a price agency for today’s figure.

What is the alumina market outlook?

The main drivers are new refinery capacity in China and Indonesia, bauxite and freight costs, energy prices and smelter demand. In October 2026 overseas prices above Chinese prices were opening a window for Chinese exports (SMM).

How much bauxite does it take to make aluminium?

About 4 tons of dried bauxite make 2 tons of alumina, which make 1 ton of aluminium (USGS, 2026).

Which country produces the most bauxite?

Guinea, with about 150 million tons in 2025, followed by Australia with 97 million and China with 87 million (USGS, 2026).

What is the US non-metallurgical alumina market?

About 30% of US alumina output in 2025 went to non-metallurgical uses such as abrasives, ceramics, chemicals and refractories (USGS, 2026).

Does the US mine bauxite?

Only small amounts of bauxite and bauxitic clay, in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia, for non-metallurgical uses. Net import reliance is above 75% (USGS, 2026).